Effects of resource availability on plant recruitment at the community level in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem

Coexisting plant species usually differ in resource requirements, which may a150 vary within species at successive demographic stages. Such differences become extremely important during the early life stages, since these are the most critical phases in woody-species recruitment, they depend heavily on resources, and they may determine future community composition. Under a global-change scenario, where c1imatic conditions, nutrient availability, and habitat characteristics are expected to be altered, it is difficult to predict the way in which plant recruitment will be affected. To understand the impact of different global-change drivers on community recruitment, we sowed a set of species representative of the different successional groups of a complete Mediterranean woody community under field conditions, and studied their emergence, growth, and survival along the main resource gradients of light, water, and nutrients. The light and nutrient gradients followed the natural range of conditions in the study area, but water availability was manipulated to simulate three contrasting c1imatic scenarios: wetter, drier, and current conditions. Structural equation modelling was used to provide a comprehensive analysis of the factors and relations governing plant recruitment. Overall, seedling emergence was determined directly by light; growth was determined by light and summer soil moisture; and survival was determined by summer soil moisture. Lightwas the main factor indirectly affecting the demographic stages of all species. However, the magnitude of the direct and indirect relationshi ps varied among species. Particularly, species differed in their response to the expected drier c1imatic conditions, sorne (eg. Pinus sylvestris,Aceropalus) being much more vulnerable than others (e.g. Cytisus scoparius, Salvia lavandulifolia). These differential responses could translate as major shifts in the structure of the overall plant community. Our results support the idea that the analysis of complex relations among essential resources is critical for accurate forecasts of the impact of c1imate change on community dynamics.